Americans continue to prefer some cultural activities over others when compared to life before the pandemic. Though these new preferences are proving durable, there are important trends to note.
It’s time for a data update with fresh insight through the end of 2022, folks!
As regular readers and partners know, IMPACTS Experience began monitoring how the coronavirus was impacting the types of organizations people were choosing to visit when the pandemic started, and we’ve been providing periodic updates ever since.
We’ve referred to this metric as the “redistribution of demand.” By this time – nearly three years after the start of the pandemic – institutions may expect the demand for different cultural experiences to return to pre-pandemic levels. In other words, one might think that the folks who once enjoyed going to the theater over the zoo would by now have returned to preferring the theater. However, as of May of 2022, we noted that changes in preferences were proving durable.
So, is this still the case? Or have preferences to attend different visitor-serving entities returned to 2019 levels?
Not in the same way. The demand for onsite cultural engagement remains distributed away from some organization types and towards others…
But there are some new trends of note and meaningful implications as we start the year.
Redistribution of demand as of the start of 2023
Let’s start with a refresher on the methodology. We’ve been asking people the following basic question: “On a scale of 1 to 100 where a response of 1 means ‘a significant decrease in my likelihood of visiting,’ a response of 50 means ’the same’ or ‘no change in my likelihood of visiting,’ and a response of 100 means a ‘significant increase in my likelihood of visiting’: How likely are you to visit a(n) [organization type] after the current coronavirus-related restrictions are removed and you are able to resume your normal activities?”
A response of 50 indicates no change whatsoever in intended future visitation behaviors as of 2019, suggesting intentions to engage with the indicated organization type as they would in the “before times.” Any response greater than 50 indicates a proportionately higher level of preference to visit when compared to “before times” for a type of organization. Conversely, any response less than 50 indicates proportionately lessened preference to visit.
As usual, this research does not necessarily mean that people prefer botanic gardens to symphonies. Instead, this metric intends to measure how likely people are to return to their normal, pre-coronavirus behaviors. It means that people whose normal behavior in 2019 was to go to symphonies report being less likely to return to the symphony now. It means that people whose normal behavior was to go to botanic gardens are even more likely to visit them now than they were before the pandemic.
The chart below shows the redistribution of demand as of the end of years 2020, 2021, and 2022. The trendline established by indicating the span of years intends to demonstrate the speed at which preferences may or may not be changing.
What do these findings mean?
A) There remains a redistribution of demand away from some organization types and towards others, representing a particular long-term challenge for performing arts organizations.
On the whole, demand has been redistributed away from stationary indoor experiences and toward those that allow for freedom of movement – and particularly those that offer outdoor experiences. This finding emerged even in the early weeks of the pandemic and continues to hold true today. Despite solidly living alongside the coronavirus, people are still behaving differently when it comes to cultural activities. If their behaviors were the same, all bars would be at the baseline of 50.
You’ll note that redistribution of demand still dramatically benefits parks and gardens. It also strongly benefits zoos, aquariums, and some museums (more on this in point B). Gardens, zoos, and aquariums generally did (and continue to do) comparatively well in attracting visitors during the pandemic – with some attracting even greater attendance numbers than before the pandemic! Over the last couple of years, Americans have been conditioned to consider outdoor activities and those that allow for greater freedom of movement as more top-of-mind due to safety perceptions. Simply, the pandemic more effectively activated previously inactive visitors to these institutions by providing a perceptually safer activity than other out-of-home competitors for leisure time. People who may have been interested in either going to the zoo or seeing a movie in the movie theater are more likely to choose the zoo now – even if the movie would have won out in pre-pandemic times.
Here’s the bad news: Despite increases compared to 2020 and 2021, distribution of demand as it relates to performing arts organizations is still notably below the 2019 level. People who once considered themselves regular patrons at theaters, concert halls, and other performing arts organizations have adjusted their preferences toward other experiences instead. Predictably, this impacts market potential for performing arts organizations.
There’s no way around this reality for performing arts organizations. The journey back to pre-2020 distribution of demand may continue to be a long one. Given the slow pace of engaging younger audiences relative to population shifts for organizations such as symphonies, the demand may not return at all.
On one hand, this trend is potentially devastating for the performing arts industry. On the other hand, this challenge may represent a revolutionary opportunity for these organizations to fundamentally adapt engagement methods and means to change up these experiences as we currently know them – or at least to change up business models so that they may be more sustainable given shrinking audience sizes. Now may be a time for the performing arts industry’s best and brightest minds to step into the spotlight with creative solutions to meet their audiences where they are on digital platforms, elevate welcoming perceptions, and tap into creative programming.
Indeed, this is all much easier said than done. However, ignoring the extent of this issue risks missing the opportunity completely.
B) There’s renewed interest in people becoming regular visitors to museum again, but beware: Increased desire to leave one’s home to partake in activities is a tide rising (most) ships.
“Wow! Redistribution of demand for museums is higher now than before the pandemic! This means there’s a spike in attendance upcoming for the industry, right?!”
Hold your horses. At 57 – a whole seven points above the 2019 baseline – this trend is certainly positive for museums! It means that attending museums is something that people are reporting a likelihood of regularly doing at levels even higher than before the pandemic. However, this chart is not a linear metric for attendance or market potential for the industry. Instead, this chart gives us insight into what people prefer to do as we learn to live alongside the pandemic, and there is notable competition for out-of-home activities right now because people are doing (and want to be doing) a whole lot of things more regularly post-2020. (Though it went up slightly, this makes the durability of redistribution away from performance-based organizations all the more disconcerting.)
This increase in redistribution of demand for museums is exciting, but here are a few things to keep in mind:
- Not all museums or exhibit-based cultural entities are performing/recovering equally well. For instance, we’re seeing greater attendance and intentions to visit art and history organizations on the whole than science centers and children’s museums. This variance is also impacting 2023 overall industry market potential.
- Pent-up demand from the pandemic has largely been realized. Redistribution of demand is not the same as pent-up demand. Most museums have been reopened for years now, so the demand is no longer “pent-up” in terms of these institutions being inaccessible due to COVID-related closures. Research shows that any pent-up demand for the cultural industry was largely realized by mid-year 2022. So, resist the urge to see this redistribution of demand value and think, “Now here’s the rush coming!” That rush already happened. It was likely made up of your museum’s most loyal fans and community members in 2021 and 2022. That’s also arguably when our industry needed them most, so it’s hardly reasonable to pooh-pooh this win. (Three cheers for the regular museumgoers who missed us most when we were gone!)
- There’s increased desire to take part in out-of-home activities on the whole this year – and thus increased competition. As mentioned, people are eager to “regularly” do a lot of things again at increased levels compared to 2019. After all, most of us still freshly remember what it was like to be “stuck at home” and kept away from the things we loved for health-related reasons. For most of us, being homebound was not great. Competition amongst out-of-home leisure activities is high right now.
Redistribution of demand has museums up at 57 (huzzah!) and this is excellent news for the exhibit-based portion of the industry. People are wanting to be regulars again! But they also want to be regulars to many other things as well. Take the good news, but also consider market potential and the importance of marketing right now given competition for out-of-home activities. After all, if people are willing to leave their homes, we want them to be most willing to visit us.
C) These redistributions of demand may be the “new normal” for the next few years, at least.
These data suggest visitors have not only adjusted their behaviors in response to the pandemic but have settled into these new preferences as part of a “new normal.” Research suggests that new habits are formed in 66 days, on average. Nearly three years into the pandemic, visitors to cultural organizations are well beyond this timespan in terms of establishing new habits. For performing arts organizations, the journey toward pre-pandemic distribution of demand is likely to be a slow one, if this segment even can secure those levels again.
The news is good for museums, gardens, aquariums, zoos, and other exhibit-based cultural institutions, but the operations of individual organizations will inform how well the industry increases its attendance and realizes its market potential. It’s great news that numbers have increased for museums! But also remember that people are showing renewed interest in “returning” to many of their pre-pandemic behaviors with gusto. And leisure time is limited. Given the increased competition amongst out-of-home leisure activities that we are already seeing in 2023, strategic programming and targeted marketing are may be more important than ever before.
For performing arts organizations: We’re still in a time of potential revolution for the industry in order to recover and to jump-start a pathway to thriving again. Keep your creative juices flowing. It’s a long road, and an important time for your work.
For exhibit-based organizations: We’re getting back to it! The elevated redistribution of demand for these experiences is good news on the whole, but it doesn’t necessarily mean folks will choose to attend these organizations over other activities of interest given steep competition. Keep tabs on smart marketing and programs that aim to motivate engagement.
For all cultural executives, stakeholders, staff members, and experience-lovers: Keep going. We’re seeing big trends in the data and it’s still up to us to maximize momentum and optimize engagement.
With that, you have an update on overall redistribution of demand. As usual, we’ll keep you posted.
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